Recent polling averages place Democrat Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest, consistent with her 49.5% primary finish and sustained fundraising edge. The late-October New York Times reporting on alleged efforts to recruit a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan triggered DOJ scrutiny and a lawsuit over certification but has not produced measurable shifts in public surveys or forecasts through early November. With the general election set for November 3 and no decisive late-breaking developments favoring Sullivan, traders assign near-certain probability that his odds will not exceed Peltola’s on the referenced platform by the resolution deadline. Late polls showing a sudden Sullivan surge, court rulings altering ballot access, or turnout surprises under ranked-choice tabulation remain the narrow pathways that could still alter positioning before November 2.