Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that President Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural barriers, which require the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation. No verified developments in the past month indicate any presidential inability to discharge duties, and administration loyalty plus partisan control in Congress reduce the likelihood of invocation. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used for involuntary removal of a sitting president. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, documented health crisis or bipartisan consensus on incapacity, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว4% โอกาส
$49,857 ปริมาณ
$49,857 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$49,857 ปริมาณ
$49,857 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that President Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural barriers, which require the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation. No verified developments in the past month indicate any presidential inability to discharge duties, and administration loyalty plus partisan control in Congress reduce the likelihood of invocation. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used for involuntary removal of a sitting president. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, documented health crisis or bipartisan consensus on incapacity, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,857วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that President Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural barriers, which require the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation. No verified developments in the past month indicate any presidential inability to discharge duties, and administration loyalty plus partisan control in Congress reduce the likelihood of invocation. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used for involuntary removal of a sitting president. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, documented health crisis or bipartisan consensus on incapacity, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$49,857วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that President Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural barriers, which require the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation. No verified developments in the past month indicate any presidential inability to discharge duties, and administration loyalty plus partisan control in Congress reduce the likelihood of invocation. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used for involuntary removal of a sitting president. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden, documented health crisis or bipartisan consensus on incapacity, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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