Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9 percent surge in energy costs amid the Iran-related oil shock, has reinforced trader expectations for sustained inflation above 3.5 percent by year-end. With the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, the labor market remains resilient, supporting the 51.5 percent implied probability for an overheating scenario of unemployment below 5.0 percent paired with elevated inflation. Core CPI at 2.8 percent and forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters point to persistent price pressures into the third quarter, while modest job growth and stable participation rates limit near-term risks of a sharp unemployment rise. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, alongside potential Federal Reserve communications, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment around these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
51%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
16%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 ปริมาณ
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$439 ปริมาณ
51%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 ปริมาณ
19%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 ปริมาณ
16%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9 percent surge in energy costs amid the Iran-related oil shock, has reinforced trader expectations for sustained inflation above 3.5 percent by year-end. With the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, the labor market remains resilient, supporting the 51.5 percent implied probability for an overheating scenario of unemployment below 5.0 percent paired with elevated inflation. Core CPI at 2.8 percent and forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters point to persistent price pressures into the third quarter, while modest job growth and stable participation rates limit near-term risks of a sharp unemployment rise. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, alongside potential Federal Reserve communications, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment around these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9 percent surge in energy costs amid the Iran-related oil shock, has reinforced trader expectations for sustained inflation above 3.5 percent by year-end. With the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, the labor market remains resilient, supporting the 51.5 percent implied probability for an overheating scenario of unemployment below 5.0 percent paired with elevated inflation. Core CPI at 2.8 percent and forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters point to persistent price pressures into the third quarter, while modest job growth and stable participation rates limit near-term risks of a sharp unemployment rise. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, alongside potential Federal Reserve communications, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment around these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9 percent surge in energy costs amid the Iran-related oil shock, has reinforced trader expectations for sustained inflation above 3.5 percent by year-end. With the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, the labor market remains resilient, supporting the 51.5 percent implied probability for an overheating scenario of unemployment below 5.0 percent paired with elevated inflation. Core CPI at 2.8 percent and forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters point to persistent price pressures into the third quarter, while modest job growth and stable participation rates limit near-term risks of a sharp unemployment rise. Upcoming June CPI and employment releases, alongside potential Federal Reserve communications, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment around these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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