Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict—has elevated the market-implied probability of an overheating outcome to 41.5%. With unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, traders are pricing in a tight labor market that sustains wage pressures and keeps inflation above the 3.5% threshold through year-end. This positioning contrasts with the 26.0% soft-landing odds, as forward-looking projections from the March FOMC dot plot and CBO forecasts anticipate only modest cooling absent further policy tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and alter the balance among stagflation and slack scenarios currently at 20.5% and 16.0%.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
42%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
16%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 32%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 30%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 14.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$1,681 ปริมาณ
26%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$439 ปริมาณ
42%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$580 ปริมาณ
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$700 ปริมาณ
16%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict—has elevated the market-implied probability of an overheating outcome to 41.5%. With unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, traders are pricing in a tight labor market that sustains wage pressures and keeps inflation above the 3.5% threshold through year-end. This positioning contrasts with the 26.0% soft-landing odds, as forward-looking projections from the March FOMC dot plot and CBO forecasts anticipate only modest cooling absent further policy tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and alter the balance among stagflation and slack scenarios currently at 20.5% and 16.0%.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict—has elevated the market-implied probability of an overheating outcome to 41.5%. With unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, traders are pricing in a tight labor market that sustains wage pressures and keeps inflation above the 3.5% threshold through year-end. This positioning contrasts with the 26.0% soft-landing odds, as forward-looking projections from the March FOMC dot plot and CBO forecasts anticipate only modest cooling absent further policy tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and alter the balance among stagflation and slack scenarios currently at 20.5% and 16.0%.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,400วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—driven by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict—has elevated the market-implied probability of an overheating outcome to 41.5%. With unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, traders are pricing in a tight labor market that sustains wage pressures and keeps inflation above the 3.5% threshold through year-end. This positioning contrasts with the 26.0% soft-landing odds, as forward-looking projections from the March FOMC dot plot and CBO forecasts anticipate only modest cooling absent further policy tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the May CPI release and the June FOMC meeting, which could shift rate expectations and alter the balance among stagflation and slack scenarios currently at 20.5% and 16.0%.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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