Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voter index and consistent "solid" or "safe" ratings from forecasters, which anchors trader consensus around a Democratic win by incumbent James Walkinshaw over Republican Arthur Purves. The August 2026 primaries produced no contested races after withdrawals, leaving limited new data on candidate strength or turnout dynamics to refine margin estimates. With no major recent polling or national environment shifts altering the baseline, prediction markets price multiple margin brackets near even odds, highlighting uncertainty in exact vote share despite the structural advantage. Developments such as late fundraising reports, campaign events, or broader midterm trends could separate the brackets ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVA-11 House Election Margin of Victory
VA-11 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 50%+ 98%
Democrat 45-50% 98%
Democrat 40-45% 98%
Democrat 35-40% 98%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
98%
Democrat 45-50%
98%
Democrat 40-45%
98%
Democrat 35-40%
98%
Democrat 30-35%
98%
Democrat 25-30%
98%
Democrat 20-25%
98%
Democrat 10-20%
98%
Democrat 0-10%
98%
Republican Wins
98%
Democrat 50%+ 98%
Democrat 45-50% 98%
Democrat 40-45% 98%
Democrat 35-40% 98%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 10-20%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Democrat 0-10%
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
Republican Wins
$0 ปริมาณ
98%
The 2026 VA-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voter index and consistent "solid" or "safe" ratings from forecasters, which anchors trader consensus around a Democratic win by incumbent James Walkinshaw over Republican Arthur Purves. The August 2026 primaries produced no contested races after withdrawals, leaving limited new data on candidate strength or turnout dynamics to refine margin estimates. With no major recent polling or national environment shifts altering the baseline, prediction markets price multiple margin brackets near even odds, highlighting uncertainty in exact vote share despite the structural advantage. Developments such as late fundraising reports, campaign events, or broader midterm trends could separate the brackets ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 VA-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 VA-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voter index and consistent "solid" or "safe" ratings from forecasters, which anchors trader consensus around a Democratic win by incumbent James Walkinshaw over Republican Arthur Purves. The August 2026 primaries produced no contested races after withdrawals, leaving limited new data on candidate strength or turnout dynamics to refine margin estimates. With no major recent polling or national environment shifts altering the baseline, prediction markets price multiple margin brackets near even odds, highlighting uncertainty in exact vote share despite the structural advantage. Developments such as late fundraising reports, campaign events, or broader midterm trends could separate the brackets ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 VA-11 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-11 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:13 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Virginia's 11th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 partisan voter index and consistent "solid" or "safe" ratings from forecasters, which anchors trader consensus around a Democratic win by incumbent James Walkinshaw over Republican Arthur Purves. The August 2026 primaries produced no contested races after withdrawals, leaving limited new data on candidate strength or turnout dynamics to refine margin estimates. With no major recent polling or national environment shifts altering the baseline, prediction markets price multiple margin brackets near even odds, highlighting uncertainty in exact vote share despite the structural advantage. Developments such as late fundraising reports, campaign events, or broader midterm trends could separate the brackets ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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