The WA-03 general election between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun remains a tossup, with trader pricing on margin buckets clustered in the mid-30s to low-40s reflecting high uncertainty over the final spread. The district's underlying partisan lean—Trump carried it by roughly 5.5 points in 2024—combined with Perez's narrow prior victories and strong personal fundraising creates a narrow path for either side. Post-August top-two primary results showed Braun edging ahead in late counts, yet limited subsequent polling and the absence of major new endorsements or national tailwinds have kept implied probabilities tightly balanced. Voter turnout in Clark County suburbs, campaign spending differentials, and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
WA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 0-3% 39%
Republican 9%+ 39%
Democrat 9-12% 39%
Republican 0-3% 35%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 15%+
33%
Democrat 12-15%
33%
Democrat 9-12%
39%
Democrat 6-9%
33%
Democrat 3-6%
34%
Democrat 0-3%
39%
Republican 0-3%
35%
Republican 3-6%
33%
Republican 6-9%
33%
Republican 9%+
39%
Democrat 0-3% 39%
Republican 9%+ 39%
Democrat 9-12% 39%
Republican 0-3% 35%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 15%+
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
Democrat 12-15%
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
Democrat 9-12%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Democrat 6-9%
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
Democrat 3-6%
$0 ปริมาณ
34%
Democrat 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
Republican 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
35%
Republican 3-6%
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
Republican 6-9%
$0 ปริมาณ
33%
Republican 9%+
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The WA-03 general election between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun remains a tossup, with trader pricing on margin buckets clustered in the mid-30s to low-40s reflecting high uncertainty over the final spread. The district's underlying partisan lean—Trump carried it by roughly 5.5 points in 2024—combined with Perez's narrow prior victories and strong personal fundraising creates a narrow path for either side. Post-August top-two primary results showed Braun edging ahead in late counts, yet limited subsequent polling and the absence of major new endorsements or national tailwinds have kept implied probabilities tightly balanced. Voter turnout in Clark County suburbs, campaign spending differentials, and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The WA-03 general election between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun remains a tossup, with trader pricing on margin buckets clustered in the mid-30s to low-40s reflecting high uncertainty over the final spread. The district's underlying partisan lean—Trump carried it by roughly 5.5 points in 2024—combined with Perez's narrow prior victories and strong personal fundraising creates a narrow path for either side. Post-August top-two primary results showed Braun edging ahead in late counts, yet limited subsequent polling and the absence of major new endorsements or national tailwinds have kept implied probabilities tightly balanced. Voter turnout in Clark County suburbs, campaign spending differentials, and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
The 2026 WA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:14 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The WA-03 general election between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun remains a tossup, with trader pricing on margin buckets clustered in the mid-30s to low-40s reflecting high uncertainty over the final spread. The district's underlying partisan lean—Trump carried it by roughly 5.5 points in 2024—combined with Perez's narrow prior victories and strong personal fundraising creates a narrow path for either side. Post-August top-two primary results showed Braun edging ahead in late counts, yet limited subsequent polling and the absence of major new endorsements or national tailwinds have kept implied probabilities tightly balanced. Voter turnout in Clark County suburbs, campaign spending differentials, and any late shifts in the broader midterm environment could widen the margin in either direction before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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