Recent major earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.7 event near Ende, Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 near Colombia on August 10, have concentrated trader attention on Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where plate convergence drives frequent seismic release. USGS catalogs indicate these align with typical global rates of roughly four to six magnitude 6.0+ events per month, with Indonesia exhibiting elevated baseline activity due to its position on multiple tectonic boundaries. Short-term forecasting remains unreliable because rupture timing is inherently stochastic, though aftershock sequences from recent large events could produce additional qualifying quakes before the August 31 resolution window. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring and any new significant events in the coming days represent the primary data releases that could shift market-implied odds across listed regions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhere will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
ใหม่
Sep 3, 2026
Indonesia
99%
Japan
35%
Chile
28%
Philippines
30%
United States
18%
Mexico
25%
$8,611 ปริมาณ
Indonesia
$4,188 ปริมาณ
99%
Japan
$602 ปริมาณ
35%
Chile
$144 ปริมาณ
28%
Philippines
$1,914 ปริมาณ
30%
United States
$1,329 ปริมาณ
18%
Mexico
$435 ปริมาณ
25%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent major earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.7 event near Ende, Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 near Colombia on August 10, have concentrated trader attention on Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where plate convergence drives frequent seismic release. USGS catalogs indicate these align with typical global rates of roughly four to six magnitude 6.0+ events per month, with Indonesia exhibiting elevated baseline activity due to its position on multiple tectonic boundaries. Short-term forecasting remains unreliable because rupture timing is inherently stochastic, though aftershock sequences from recent large events could produce additional qualifying quakes before the August 31 resolution window. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring and any new significant events in the coming days represent the primary data releases that could shift market-implied odds across listed regions.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,611วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent major earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.7 event near Ende, Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 near Colombia on August 10, have concentrated trader attention on Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where plate convergence drives frequent seismic release. USGS catalogs indicate these align with typical global rates of roughly four to six magnitude 6.0+ events per month, with Indonesia exhibiting elevated baseline activity due to its position on multiple tectonic boundaries. Short-term forecasting remains unreliable because rupture timing is inherently stochastic, though aftershock sequences from recent large events could produce additional qualifying quakes before the August 31 resolution window. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring and any new significant events in the coming days represent the primary data releases that could shift market-implied odds across listed regions.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,611วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent major earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.7 event near Ende, Indonesia on August 14 and a 7.4 near Colombia on August 10, have concentrated trader attention on Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones where plate convergence drives frequent seismic release. USGS catalogs indicate these align with typical global rates of roughly four to six magnitude 6.0+ events per month, with Indonesia exhibiting elevated baseline activity due to its position on multiple tectonic boundaries. Short-term forecasting remains unreliable because rupture timing is inherently stochastic, though aftershock sequences from recent large events could produce additional qualifying quakes before the August 31 resolution window. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring and any new significant events in the coming days represent the primary data releases that could shift market-implied odds across listed regions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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