Recent Mexico inflation data and analyst forecasts anchor trader sentiment for the 2026 annual rate. The first half of October 2026 printed 3.62% year-over-year, above the 3.59% median estimate and up from 3.49% in late September, driven by electricity price jumps after summer subsidies ended, air transport, and select foods. Core inflation reached 3.78%. Citi’s latest survey shows a 3.90% median expectation for year-end 2026, with core at 3.80%, keeping the outcome within Banxico’s 2-4% tolerance band. These developments concentrate market-implied odds on the 3.50-3.99% interval at 55.9%, reflecting sticky services inflation and limited near-term disinflation momentum ahead of full-month October figures and the next Banxico policy decision.