Trader consensus positions several Trump administration cabinet members in a tight contest, driven by their distinct roles in intelligence, commerce, and domestic policy amid ongoing congressional oversight and shifting executive priorities. Appointees like Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick draw attention due to their high-visibility portfolios and potential exposure to policy disputes or confirmation-related scrutiny, while a notable share of probability on no departure before 2027 reflects structural stability in the current term. Developments such as Senate hearings, major legislative votes, or internal administration realignments could quickly widen gaps by highlighting performance metrics or prompting resignations. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in recent administrations further inform trader assessments of these dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHoward Lutnick 30.4%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
None before 2027 7%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
Howard Lutnick
30%
Tulsi Gabbard
35%
Scott Bessent
14%
None before 2027
25%
Susie Wiles
16%
Marco Rubio
25%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
25%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Howard Lutnick 30.4%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
None before 2027 7%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 ปริมาณ
30%
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 ปริมาณ
35%
Scott Bessent
$233 ปริมาณ
14%
None before 2027
$223 ปริมาณ
25%
Susie Wiles
$326 ปริมาณ
16%
Marco Rubio
$294 ปริมาณ
25%
Pete Hegseth
$628 ปริมาณ
4%
Chris Wright
$390 ปริมาณ
25%
Brooke Rollins
$218 ปริมาณ
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 ปริมาณ
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 ปริมาณ
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 ปริมาณ
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 ปริมาณ
1%
Scott Turner
$352 ปริมาณ
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 ปริมาณ
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Collins
$318 ปริมาณ
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 ปริมาณ
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 ปริมาณ
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus positions several Trump administration cabinet members in a tight contest, driven by their distinct roles in intelligence, commerce, and domestic policy amid ongoing congressional oversight and shifting executive priorities. Appointees like Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick draw attention due to their high-visibility portfolios and potential exposure to policy disputes or confirmation-related scrutiny, while a notable share of probability on no departure before 2027 reflects structural stability in the current term. Developments such as Senate hearings, major legislative votes, or internal administration realignments could quickly widen gaps by highlighting performance metrics or prompting resignations. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in recent administrations further inform trader assessments of these dynamics.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus positions several Trump administration cabinet members in a tight contest, driven by their distinct roles in intelligence, commerce, and domestic policy amid ongoing congressional oversight and shifting executive priorities. Appointees like Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick draw attention due to their high-visibility portfolios and potential exposure to policy disputes or confirmation-related scrutiny, while a notable share of probability on no departure before 2027 reflects structural stability in the current term. Developments such as Senate hearings, major legislative votes, or internal administration realignments could quickly widen gaps by highlighting performance metrics or prompting resignations. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in recent administrations further inform trader assessments of these dynamics.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions several Trump administration cabinet members in a tight contest, driven by their distinct roles in intelligence, commerce, and domestic policy amid ongoing congressional oversight and shifting executive priorities. Appointees like Tulsi Gabbard and Howard Lutnick draw attention due to their high-visibility portfolios and potential exposure to policy disputes or confirmation-related scrutiny, while a notable share of probability on no departure before 2027 reflects structural stability in the current term. Developments such as Senate hearings, major legislative votes, or internal administration realignments could quickly widen gaps by highlighting performance metrics or prompting resignations. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in recent administrations further inform trader assessments of these dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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