Trader consensus reflects the closely contested early-term dynamics of the Trump administration, where Tulsi Gabbard, Susie Wiles, and Howard Lutnick lead amid limited signals of internal friction or policy misalignment. This positioning arises from the recent confirmation process for national security, White House operations, and economic roles, which introduced varying levels of public and Senate scrutiny over priorities such as intelligence coordination, staff management, and trade policy. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in new administrations further support the tight spread, as few verifiable departures or major disagreements have surfaced since inauguration. Potential catalysts for separation include upcoming legislative votes, diplomatic summits, or executive actions on issues like tariffs and border security, which could reveal operational challenges or shifts in influence. The market resolves on the first confirmed exit before 2027, leaving room for rapid changes driven by administration announcements or personnel adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone before 2027 29%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Susie Wiles 24.9%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
29%
Tulsi Gabbard
36%
Susie Wiles
25%
Howard Lutnick
26%
Scott Bessent
14%
Marco Rubio
20%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Chris Wright
27%
None before 2027 29%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Susie Wiles 24.9%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$223 ปริมาณ
29%
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 ปริมาณ
36%
Susie Wiles
$326 ปริมาณ
25%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 ปริมาณ
26%
Scott Bessent
$233 ปริมาณ
14%
Marco Rubio
$294 ปริมาณ
20%
Pete Hegseth
$628 ปริมาณ
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 ปริมาณ
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 ปริมาณ
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 ปริมาณ
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 ปริมาณ
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 ปริมาณ
2%
Scott Turner
$352 ปริมาณ
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 ปริมาณ
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Collins
$318 ปริมาณ
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 ปริมาณ
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 ปริมาณ
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 ปริมาณ
<1%
Chris Wright
$390 ปริมาณ
27%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the closely contested early-term dynamics of the Trump administration, where Tulsi Gabbard, Susie Wiles, and Howard Lutnick lead amid limited signals of internal friction or policy misalignment. This positioning arises from the recent confirmation process for national security, White House operations, and economic roles, which introduced varying levels of public and Senate scrutiny over priorities such as intelligence coordination, staff management, and trade policy. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in new administrations further support the tight spread, as few verifiable departures or major disagreements have surfaced since inauguration. Potential catalysts for separation include upcoming legislative votes, diplomatic summits, or executive actions on issues like tariffs and border security, which could reveal operational challenges or shifts in influence. The market resolves on the first confirmed exit before 2027, leaving room for rapid changes driven by administration announcements or personnel adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the closely contested early-term dynamics of the Trump administration, where Tulsi Gabbard, Susie Wiles, and Howard Lutnick lead amid limited signals of internal friction or policy misalignment. This positioning arises from the recent confirmation process for national security, White House operations, and economic roles, which introduced varying levels of public and Senate scrutiny over priorities such as intelligence coordination, staff management, and trade policy. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in new administrations further support the tight spread, as few verifiable departures or major disagreements have surfaced since inauguration. Potential catalysts for separation include upcoming legislative votes, diplomatic summits, or executive actions on issues like tariffs and border security, which could reveal operational challenges or shifts in influence. The market resolves on the first confirmed exit before 2027, leaving room for rapid changes driven by administration announcements or personnel adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects the closely contested early-term dynamics of the Trump administration, where Tulsi Gabbard, Susie Wiles, and Howard Lutnick lead amid limited signals of internal friction or policy misalignment. This positioning arises from the recent confirmation process for national security, White House operations, and economic roles, which introduced varying levels of public and Senate scrutiny over priorities such as intelligence coordination, staff management, and trade policy. Historical patterns of cabinet turnover in new administrations further support the tight spread, as few verifiable departures or major disagreements have surfaced since inauguration. Potential catalysts for separation include upcoming legislative votes, diplomatic summits, or executive actions on issues like tariffs and border security, which could reveal operational challenges or shifts in influence. The market resolves on the first confirmed exit before 2027, leaving room for rapid changes driven by administration announcements or personnel adjustments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย