Recent reports of internal White House frustration with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over her Iran-related testimony have elevated her to the leading position in trader assessments at 38 percent, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sits at 28.8 percent amid renewed scrutiny of his Epstein connections and performance questions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright trails at 26.2 percent as gas price pressures mount. These developments follow the departures of three prior cabinet officials since March, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, which have raised expectations for further turnover ahead of the 2026 midterms. At the same time, the 32 percent probability assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects ongoing official expressions of confidence and loyalty signals from the administration. Upcoming Senate confirmation timelines and potential policy clashes could shift these closely matched odds in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNone before 2027 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
35%
Howard Lutnick
29%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
23%
Marco Rubio
24%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
25%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
None before 2027 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Howard Lutnick 15.0%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$223 ปริมาณ
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 ปริมาณ
35%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 ปริมาณ
29%
Scott Bessent
$233 ปริมาณ
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 ปริมาณ
23%
Marco Rubio
$294 ปริมาณ
24%
Pete Hegseth
$628 ปริมาณ
4%
Chris Wright
$390 ปริมาณ
25%
Brooke Rollins
$218 ปริมาณ
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 ปริมาณ
3%
J.D. Vance
$415 ปริมาณ
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 ปริมาณ
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 ปริมาณ
2%
Scott Turner
$352 ปริมาณ
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 ปริมาณ
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Collins
$318 ปริมาณ
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 ปริมาณ
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 ปริมาณ
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent reports of internal White House frustration with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over her Iran-related testimony have elevated her to the leading position in trader assessments at 38 percent, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sits at 28.8 percent amid renewed scrutiny of his Epstein connections and performance questions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright trails at 26.2 percent as gas price pressures mount. These developments follow the departures of three prior cabinet officials since March, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, which have raised expectations for further turnover ahead of the 2026 midterms. At the same time, the 32 percent probability assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects ongoing official expressions of confidence and loyalty signals from the administration. Upcoming Senate confirmation timelines and potential policy clashes could shift these closely matched odds in either direction.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent reports of internal White House frustration with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over her Iran-related testimony have elevated her to the leading position in trader assessments at 38 percent, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sits at 28.8 percent amid renewed scrutiny of his Epstein connections and performance questions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright trails at 26.2 percent as gas price pressures mount. These developments follow the departures of three prior cabinet officials since March, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, which have raised expectations for further turnover ahead of the 2026 midterms. At the same time, the 32 percent probability assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects ongoing official expressions of confidence and loyalty signals from the administration. Upcoming Senate confirmation timelines and potential policy clashes could shift these closely matched odds in either direction.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent reports of internal White House frustration with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard over her Iran-related testimony have elevated her to the leading position in trader assessments at 38 percent, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sits at 28.8 percent amid renewed scrutiny of his Epstein connections and performance questions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright trails at 26.2 percent as gas price pressures mount. These developments follow the departures of three prior cabinet officials since March, including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, which have raised expectations for further turnover ahead of the 2026 midterms. At the same time, the 32 percent probability assigned to no exit before 2027 reflects ongoing official expressions of confidence and loyalty signals from the administration. Upcoming Senate confirmation timelines and potential policy clashes could shift these closely matched odds in either direction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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