Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTulsi Gabbard 40%
Howard Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 28%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
40%
Howard Lutnick
30%
None before 2027
28%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
21%
Marco Rubio
24%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Chris Wright
18%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 40%
Howard Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 28%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 ปริมาณ
$11,675 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 ปริมาณ
40%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 ปริมาณ
30%
None before 2027
$223 ปริมาณ
28%
Scott Bessent
$233 ปริมาณ
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 ปริมาณ
21%
Marco Rubio
$294 ปริมาณ
24%
Pete Hegseth
$628 ปริมาณ
4%
Chris Wright
$390 ปริมาณ
18%
Brooke Rollins
$218 ปริมาณ
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 ปริมาณ
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 ปริมาณ
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 ปริมาณ
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 ปริมาณ
2%
Scott Turner
$352 ปริมาณ
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 ปริมาณ
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 ปริมาณ
1%
Doug Collins
$318 ปริมาณ
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 ปริมาณ
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 ปริมาณ
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 ปริมาณ
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,675วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย