**Trader consensus heavily favors no new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflected in the 89.9% implied probability for “No.”** With only a few months remaining until the end of 2026, recent developments show deepening ties among existing signatories rather than new accessions. Israel and Morocco agreed in mid-September 2026 to upgrade diplomatic missions to full embassies, exchange ambassadors, resume direct flights, and finalize investment and tax agreements, advancing their existing normalization without adding members. Speculation around potential new entrants, such as an Israeli envoy’s comments on Kuwait possibly joining within four to six months, points to timelines extending into 2027. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state, while broader U.S. calls for expansion have not produced concrete new signings. Regional security dynamics, including Houthi threats and Iran-related tensions, have prompted quiet cooperation talks but have not overcome the diplomatic hurdles for formal accession in the short term. These factors—limited time horizon, unresolved preconditions for major candidates, and focus on consolidating current agreements—underpin the market’s assessment that a new country is unlikely before 2027.