Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or logistics buildup that would be required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Ongoing cross-strait tensions continue through routine People's Liberation Army drills and diplomatic signaling, yet no recent escalation—such as a sudden surge in naval deployments or official statements altering the status quo—has materialized in the past month. Historical patterns show Beijing favoring gray-zone pressure over immediate kinetic action, while U.S. and allied deterrence postures, combined with the high economic and strategic costs of conflict, reinforce the current consensus. A late surprise escalation remains theoretically possible but would require unprecedented secrecy and speed inconsistent with observable indicators.