Greenland's path to independence remains a gradual, multi-year process under the 2009 Self-Government Act, with no referendum scheduled or prepared for 2026. Recent developments, including the September 2026 trilateral security agreement with the US and Denmark, have reaffirmed Danish sovereignty while preserving Greenland's self-determination rights and linking any future independence to continued NATO membership. A commission examining legal steps is not due to report until early 2027, and economic reliance on Danish block grants—roughly 20 percent of the economy—plus recent parliamentary moves toward resource restrictions continue to favor a measured timeline. Traders' near-certain consensus on no 2026 vote reflects these structural and procedural barriers, though an unexpected coalition shift or sudden economic catalyst could still accelerate the timeline.