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Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

icon for Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

66% โอกาส
Polymarket
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66% โอกาส
Polymarket
ใหม่
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders see the contest as nearly even because national headwinds against Republicans—low presidential approval around 38% and a Democratic generic-ballot edge—coexist with competitive individual races in the key Biden-Trump states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.** Democrats defend open or vulnerable Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan and several governorships in Trump-won territory, yet several of those contests rate as toss-ups or lean Democratic with roughly six weeks until the November 3 election. Republican recruitment, fundraising, and structural advantages in certain districts keep pickup opportunities alive, while Democratic turnout and candidate strength in the same states prevent a clear edge. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments in any single race could quickly tilt the implied probability in either direction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026.

Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,579
วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 5, 2027
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

ผู้ตัดสินผล

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders see the contest as nearly even because national headwinds against Republicans—low presidential approval around 38% and a Democratic generic-ballot edge—coexist with competitive individual races in the key Biden-Trump states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.** Democrats defend open or vulnerable Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan and several governorships in Trump-won territory, yet several of those contests rate as toss-ups or lean Democratic with roughly six weeks until the November 3 election. Republican recruitment, fundraising, and structural advantages in certain districts keep pickup opportunities alive, while Democratic turnout and candidate strength in the same states prevent a clear edge. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments in any single race could quickly tilt the implied probability in either direction.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026.

Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards any party. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,579
วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 5, 2027
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

ผู้ตัดสินผล

0x65070BE91...

ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก

คำถามที่พบบ่อย

"Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้น "Yes" หรือ "No" ตามความเชื่อว่าเหตุการณ์นี้จะเกิดขึ้นหรือไม่ ความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนในปัจจุบันคือ 50% สำหรับ "Yes" ตัวอย่างเช่น ถ้า "Yes" มีราคา 50¢ แปลว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 50% ที่เหตุการณ์นี้จะเกิดขึ้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล

"Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" เป็นตลาดที่เพิ่งสร้างใหม่บน Polymarket เปิดเมื่อ May 27, 2026 ในฐานะตลาดใหม่ นี่คือโอกาสของคุณที่จะเป็นหนึ่งในนักเทรดกลุ่มแรกที่ตั้งอัตราและสร้างสัญญาณราคาเริ่มต้น คุณยังสามารถบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อติดตามปริมาณและกิจกรรมการซื้อขายเมื่อตลาดเริ่มคึกคัก

ในการเทรด "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" เพียงเลือกว่าคุณเชื่อว่าคำตอบคือ "Yes" หรือ "No" แต่ละฝั่งมีราคาปัจจุบันที่สะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าคุณซื้อหุ้น "Yes" และผลลัพธ์ตัดสินเป็น "Yes" แต่ละหุ้นจ่าย $1 ถ้าตัดสินเป็น "No" หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน

ความน่าจะเป็นปัจจุบันสำหรับ "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" คือ 50% สำหรับ "Yes" นั่นหมายความว่าฝูงชน Polymarket เชื่อว่ามีโอกาส 50% ที่เหตุการณ์นี้จะเกิดขึ้น อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ตามการเทรดจริง ให้สัญญาณที่อัปเดตต่อเนื่องว่าตลาดคาดว่าอะไรจะเกิดขึ้น

กฎการตัดสินผลของ "Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้