The constitutional mandate requiring all House seats and one-third of Senate seats to face voters every two years sets November 3, 2026, as the fixed date for the midterms, with no enacted legislation or executive action altering that schedule. State primaries have already taken place in Nebraska and West Virginia, while ongoing redistricting litigation following a recent Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling proceeds without shifting the federal timeline. Traders assign a 91.5 percent probability to the elections occurring as planned because the decentralized administration by state officials and the absence of any congressional mechanism for unilateral postponement reinforce institutional continuity, even as partisan map adjustments continue in multiple states.