The statutory framework under federal law, which fixes congressional elections for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years, underpins the 96% trader consensus that the 2026 midterms will proceed on November 3. Preparations continue across states with primaries underway and no congressional action to alter the date. The executive branch lacks authority to cancel or postpone, as confirmed by legal analyses of emergency powers and election statutes. Historical precedent shows elections occurring amid crises, supporting market pricing. Low-probability shifts could arise only from an unprecedented congressional vote to delay amid a severe national emergency or unforeseen legal barriers, though none appear imminent.