Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus confirm 2024–2025 as the warmest years on record, with 12-month averages briefly exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels amid El Niño influences, yet the long-term trend remains below the threshold. The Climate Clock, driven by Mercator Research Institute carbon budget estimates last revised in 2023 using IPCC AR6 figures (roughly 400 GtCO2 remaining from 2020 at 67% probability), continues displaying a deadline near late 2029–2030 at current emission rates of ~42 GtCO2 annually. No major IPCC update or verified global emission drop sufficient to extend the budget has occurred since then, and 2026 analyses project exhaustion around 2030 without rapid mitigation. Trader consensus for no change by year-end 2026 reflects the infrequency of clock revisions, which depend on new peer-reviewed budgets or sustained emission trajectory shifts rather than short-term fluctuations. Upcoming monitoring reports on 2025–2026 emissions could provide the next potential catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
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Jan 1, 2027
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Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus confirm 2024–2025 as the warmest years on record, with 12-month averages briefly exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels amid El Niño influences, yet the long-term trend remains below the threshold. The Climate Clock, driven by Mercator Research Institute carbon budget estimates last revised in 2023 using IPCC AR6 figures (roughly 400 GtCO2 remaining from 2020 at 67% probability), continues displaying a deadline near late 2029–2030 at current emission rates of ~42 GtCO2 annually. No major IPCC update or verified global emission drop sufficient to extend the budget has occurred since then, and 2026 analyses project exhaustion around 2030 without rapid mitigation. Trader consensus for no change by year-end 2026 reflects the infrequency of clock revisions, which depend on new peer-reviewed budgets or sustained emission trajectory shifts rather than short-term fluctuations. Upcoming monitoring reports on 2025–2026 emissions could provide the next potential catalyst.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,857วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2029ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus confirm 2024–2025 as the warmest years on record, with 12-month averages briefly exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels amid El Niño influences, yet the long-term trend remains below the threshold. The Climate Clock, driven by Mercator Research Institute carbon budget estimates last revised in 2023 using IPCC AR6 figures (roughly 400 GtCO2 remaining from 2020 at 67% probability), continues displaying a deadline near late 2029–2030 at current emission rates of ~42 GtCO2 annually. No major IPCC update or verified global emission drop sufficient to extend the budget has occurred since then, and 2026 analyses project exhaustion around 2030 without rapid mitigation. Trader consensus for no change by year-end 2026 reflects the infrequency of clock revisions, which depend on new peer-reviewed budgets or sustained emission trajectory shifts rather than short-term fluctuations. Upcoming monitoring reports on 2025–2026 emissions could provide the next potential catalyst.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,857วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus confirm 2024–2025 as the warmest years on record, with 12-month averages briefly exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels amid El Niño influences, yet the long-term trend remains below the threshold. The Climate Clock, driven by Mercator Research Institute carbon budget estimates last revised in 2023 using IPCC AR6 figures (roughly 400 GtCO2 remaining from 2020 at 67% probability), continues displaying a deadline near late 2029–2030 at current emission rates of ~42 GtCO2 annually. No major IPCC update or verified global emission drop sufficient to extend the budget has occurred since then, and 2026 analyses project exhaustion around 2030 without rapid mitigation. Trader consensus for no change by year-end 2026 reflects the infrequency of clock revisions, which depend on new peer-reviewed budgets or sustained emission trajectory shifts rather than short-term fluctuations. Upcoming monitoring reports on 2025–2026 emissions could provide the next potential catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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