Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Typhoon 21%
Violent Typhoon 21%
Severe Tropical Storm 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
7%
Severe Tropical Storm
15%
Typhoon
25%
Very Strong Typhoon
55%
Violent Typhoon
21%
Very Strong Typhoon 55%
Typhoon 21%
Violent Typhoon 21%
Severe Tropical Storm 15%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$20 ปริมาณ
7%
Severe Tropical Storm
$19 ปริมาณ
15%
Typhoon
$37 ปริมาณ
25%
Very Strong Typhoon
$35 ปริมาณ
55%
Violent Typhoon
$44 ปริมาณ
21%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$154วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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