Current short-range ensemble forecasts from European models point to a maximum of 21–22 °C in Munich on August 21 under overcast skies and scattered showers, keeping those two outcomes neck-and-neck in the market. A weak frontal boundary and lingering Atlantic moisture are expected to limit daytime heating by increasing cloud cover and triggering brief convective cells, while light westerly flow prevents stronger warming. Model spread in the timing and intensity of showers creates the narrow gap between the leading probabilities, with any earlier clearing or reduced precipitation likely to push readings toward the higher end of the range. Updated runs from the DWD and ECMWF over the next 24 hours will be the key catalyst for shifts in trader positioning.