Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027 because current policy baselines point to fiscal year 2026 shortfalls remaining near $1.9 trillion, or roughly 5.8% of GDP, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Extension of 2017-era tax provisions through reconciliation added an estimated $4.7 trillion to ten-year deficits, while higher tariff revenues and modest discretionary cuts have offset only a portion of the increase. Rising net interest costs on the $39 trillion-plus national debt and slower-than-expected GDP growth further widen the gap. Although the administration has highlighted fraud reduction and spending restraint as potential offsets, consensus forecasts show no credible path to a year-over-year decline by the end of calendar 2026. The only plausible tail risks capable of altering this trajectory would involve an unexpectedly sharp revenue surge from sustained 3%+ growth or enactment of additional across-the-board spending reductions exceeding current appropriations levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027 because current policy baselines point to fiscal year 2026 shortfalls remaining near $1.9 trillion, or roughly 5.8% of GDP, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Extension of 2017-era tax provisions through reconciliation added an estimated $4.7 trillion to ten-year deficits, while higher tariff revenues and modest discretionary cuts have offset only a portion of the increase. Rising net interest costs on the $39 trillion-plus national debt and slower-than-expected GDP growth further widen the gap. Although the administration has highlighted fraud reduction and spending restraint as potential offsets, consensus forecasts show no credible path to a year-over-year decline by the end of calendar 2026. The only plausible tail risks capable of altering this trajectory would involve an unexpectedly sharp revenue surge from sustained 3%+ growth or enactment of additional across-the-board spending reductions exceeding current appropriations levels.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,419วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027 because current policy baselines point to fiscal year 2026 shortfalls remaining near $1.9 trillion, or roughly 5.8% of GDP, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Extension of 2017-era tax provisions through reconciliation added an estimated $4.7 trillion to ten-year deficits, while higher tariff revenues and modest discretionary cuts have offset only a portion of the increase. Rising net interest costs on the $39 trillion-plus national debt and slower-than-expected GDP growth further widen the gap. Although the administration has highlighted fraud reduction and spending restraint as potential offsets, consensus forecasts show no credible path to a year-over-year decline by the end of calendar 2026. The only plausible tail risks capable of altering this trajectory would involve an unexpectedly sharp revenue surge from sustained 3%+ growth or enactment of additional across-the-board spending reductions exceeding current appropriations levels.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,419วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that President Trump will not reduce the federal deficit before 2027 because current policy baselines point to fiscal year 2026 shortfalls remaining near $1.9 trillion, or roughly 5.8% of GDP, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Extension of 2017-era tax provisions through reconciliation added an estimated $4.7 trillion to ten-year deficits, while higher tariff revenues and modest discretionary cuts have offset only a portion of the increase. Rising net interest costs on the $39 trillion-plus national debt and slower-than-expected GDP growth further widen the gap. Although the administration has highlighted fraud reduction and spending restraint as potential offsets, consensus forecasts show no credible path to a year-over-year decline by the end of calendar 2026. The only plausible tail risks capable of altering this trajectory would involve an unexpectedly sharp revenue surge from sustained 3%+ growth or enactment of additional across-the-board spending reductions exceeding current appropriations levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย