Meta’s recent September releases, including Muse Spark 1.3 on September 2 and the standalone Muse personal AI agent on September 8, have driven the 91% market-implied odds for the lab finishing as #2 by month-end under style control evaluation. These updates added agentic workflows, improved coding and multimodal performance, and expanded API access, strengthening competitive positioning against frontier peers through verifiable capability gains and developer ecosystem momentum. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated progress in a compressed timeframe. A late-month flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, or a Chinese lab could still shift rankings if it demonstrates superior style adherence or benchmark results before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Meta 91%
Google 4.2%
Anthropic 3.0%
OpenAI 2.9%
$86,347 Vol.
$86,347 Vol.

Meta
91%

4%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Meta 91%
Google 4.2%
Anthropic 3.0%
OpenAI 2.9%
$86,347 Vol.
$86,347 Vol.

Meta
91%

4%

Anthropic
3%

OpenAI
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s recent September releases, including Muse Spark 1.3 on September 2 and the standalone Muse personal AI agent on September 8, have driven the 91% market-implied odds for the lab finishing as #2 by month-end under style control evaluation. These updates added agentic workflows, improved coding and multimodal performance, and expanded API access, strengthening competitive positioning against frontier peers through verifiable capability gains and developer ecosystem momentum. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated progress in a compressed timeframe. A late-month flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, or a Chinese lab could still shift rankings if it demonstrates superior style adherence or benchmark results before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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