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Politika·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

icon for Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?
Politika·Carney

Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?

BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,868 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for May 31

May 31

$255 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs have strengthened Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority government following the 2025 federal election. Since November 2025, four Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, Matt Jeneroux, and Marilyn Gladu—plus one NDP member, Lori Idlout, have joined the Liberal caucus, citing alignment with Carney’s economic priorities and a preference for stable governance. These shifts, combined with April 2026 by-elections, positioned the Liberals near or at a majority. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the moves as undermining voter intent, while public opinion remains divided. Traders monitor ongoing caucus stability, potential further defections, and any scheduled parliamentary sessions or leadership reviews that could influence additional switches before the next general election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,868
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 3 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "May 31" sa 17%, sinusundan ng "April 30" sa 0%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 17¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 17% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Apr 16, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?," i-browse ang 3 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" ay "May 31" sa 17%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 17% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "April 30" sa 0%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.