China’s official economic growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, set during the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the annual outcome. Strong export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove a 5 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, exceeding analyst forecasts and reversing softer momentum from late 2025. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, alongside higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, are expected to moderate expansion in subsequent quarters. Most economist projections now cluster between 4.6 and 4.8 percent, aligning closely with the government range while leaving limited room for sustained outperformance above 5 percent without additional stimulus measures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.7%
6.0-7.0% 1.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 Vol.
$570,161 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
70%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.7%
6.0-7.0% 1.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 Vol.
$570,161 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$44,354 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,493 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,773 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,348 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,542 Vol.
70%
5.0–6.0%
$56,149 Vol.
29%
6.0-7.0%
$51,008 Vol.
2%
7.0–8.0%
$55,733 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$23,951 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$86,811 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official economic growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, set during the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the annual outcome. Strong export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove a 5 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, exceeding analyst forecasts and reversing softer momentum from late 2025. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, alongside higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, are expected to moderate expansion in subsequent quarters. Most economist projections now cluster between 4.6 and 4.8 percent, aligning closely with the government range while leaving limited room for sustained outperformance above 5 percent without additional stimulus measures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$570,161Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official economic growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, set during the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the annual outcome. Strong export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove a 5 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, exceeding analyst forecasts and reversing softer momentum from late 2025. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, alongside higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, are expected to moderate expansion in subsequent quarters. Most economist projections now cluster between 4.6 and 4.8 percent, aligning closely with the government range while leaving limited room for sustained outperformance above 5 percent without additional stimulus measures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$570,161Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official economic growth target of 4.5–5 percent for 2026, set during the National People’s Congress in March, anchors trader expectations for the annual outcome. Strong export performance and front-loaded fiscal support drove a 5 percent year-on-year expansion in the first quarter, exceeding analyst forecasts and reversing softer momentum from late 2025. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property sector, alongside higher energy costs tied to Middle East developments, are expected to moderate expansion in subsequent quarters. Most economist projections now cluster between 4.6 and 4.8 percent, aligning closely with the government range while leaving limited room for sustained outperformance above 5 percent without additional stimulus measures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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