China has intensified military signaling through unannounced naval and rocket force drills in early November, including DF-26 launches, area-denial operations around Taiwan, and reports of a submarine-launched ICBM test from the Yellow Sea, yet these activities remain framed as routine training rather than escalatory strikes. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid-response capabilities and new systems such as the DF-61 occurs alongside Xi Jinping’s recent statements prioritizing peaceful reunification and ahead of the APEC summit, where a Trump-Xi meeting is anticipated. Traders assess that these factors, combined with the short remaining window and absence of acute cross-strait triggers, support a high probability that no ballistic missile launch meeting market resolution criteria will occur by December 31.