Daniel Noboa's decisive 2025 re-election for a full term through 2029 provides the primary institutional anchor for trader expectations that he will remain Ecuador's president past June 30. His legislative coalition controls enough National Assembly seats to block the two-thirds supermajority needed for impeachment or forced removal, and no formal proceedings, resignation signals, or incapacity claims have advanced. Opposition groups launched recall referendum efforts amid ongoing security and economic pressures, with May Day protests highlighting public discontent, yet the signature threshold of roughly 10 percent of the electorate and subsequent timeline make a completed vote before the deadline structurally improbable. Traders price the outcome at 95.5 percent "No" because no realistic pathway exists absent an unforeseen health event or sudden institutional rupture within the narrow window.