Trump remains firmly in office with traders assigning a 98.2% probability he will not depart by September 30, 2026, due to the narrow 27-day window and absence of active constitutional mechanisms for removal. Republican majorities in Congress have stalled Democratic-introduced articles of impeachment, such as the measure referred to committee in late August, while no cabinet actions, resignation signals, or sustained 25th Amendment efforts have emerged. Midterm elections lie weeks ahead in November, leaving no near-term shift in legislative control that could accelerate proceedings. Historical patterns show presidential removals require extended investigations, votes, and trials far exceeding this compressed schedule. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include a sudden health crisis, unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary exit, or rapid legal development, though current primary indicators show none underway.