Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—well above the 3.5% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft bookings, with ex-transport rising a modest 1.1%. Traders pricing the upcoming June 25 release for May data therefore assign the highest implied probabilities (57.9% combined) to outcomes below -2%, reflecting expectations of mean reversion after the outsized, potentially transitory April print. Key swing factors include softer capital goods trends, recent manufacturing PMI readings, and any follow-through weakness in core orders excluding volatile defense and aircraft components. The market-implied distribution remains closely contested between deep negative and flat-to-positive buckets, underscoring uncertainty around the durability of the recent upturn in factory demand.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update<-4% 33.4%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$45,057 Vol.
$45,057 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
<-4%
33%
-4%– -2%
25%
-2%– 0%
10%
0%–2%
9%
2%–4%
10%
4%–6%
5%
6%-8%
6%
8%+
5%
<-4% 33.4%
-4%– -2% 25%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
2%–4% 10%
$45,057 Vol.
$45,057 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
<-4%
$3,314 Vol.
33%
-4%– -2%
$4,595 Vol.
25%
-2%– 0%
$1,772 Vol.
10%
0%–2%
$7,520 Vol.
9%
2%–4%
$14,180 Vol.
10%
4%–6%
$8,250 Vol.
5%
6%-8%
$3,167 Vol.
6%
8%+
$2,259 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—well above the 3.5% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft bookings, with ex-transport rising a modest 1.1%. Traders pricing the upcoming June 25 release for May data therefore assign the highest implied probabilities (57.9% combined) to outcomes below -2%, reflecting expectations of mean reversion after the outsized, potentially transitory April print. Key swing factors include softer capital goods trends, recent manufacturing PMI readings, and any follow-through weakness in core orders excluding volatile defense and aircraft components. The market-implied distribution remains closely contested between deep negative and flat-to-positive buckets, underscoring uncertainty around the durability of the recent upturn in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$45,057Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 25, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—well above the 3.5% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft bookings, with ex-transport rising a modest 1.1%. Traders pricing the upcoming June 25 release for May data therefore assign the highest implied probabilities (57.9% combined) to outcomes below -2%, reflecting expectations of mean reversion after the outsized, potentially transitory April print. Key swing factors include softer capital goods trends, recent manufacturing PMI readings, and any follow-through weakness in core orders excluding volatile defense and aircraft components. The market-implied distribution remains closely contested between deep negative and flat-to-positive buckets, underscoring uncertainty around the durability of the recent upturn in factory demand.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$45,057Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 25, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April durable goods orders surged 7.9% MoM—well above the 3.5% consensus—primarily on a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment and nondefense aircraft bookings, with ex-transport rising a modest 1.1%. Traders pricing the upcoming June 25 release for May data therefore assign the highest implied probabilities (57.9% combined) to outcomes below -2%, reflecting expectations of mean reversion after the outsized, potentially transitory April print. Key swing factors include softer capital goods trends, recent manufacturing PMI readings, and any follow-through weakness in core orders excluding volatile defense and aircraft components. The market-implied distribution remains closely contested between deep negative and flat-to-positive buckets, underscoring uncertainty around the durability of the recent upturn in factory demand.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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