Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, anchored by Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 3% year-over-year in May amid energy price shocks from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Governing Council held the deposit rate steady at 2% on April 30, but post-meeting statements from policymakers including Nagel, Kazimir, Schnabel, Cipollone, and Kocher signal a June hike as likely or inevitable to counter entrenched inflation risks above the 2% target. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys forecast two 25-basis-point increases starting next month, marking a hawkish pivot from earlier cut expectations, with the June monetary policy decision as the key upcoming catalyst.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$113,871 Vol.
$113,871 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$113,871 Vol.
$113,871 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, anchored by Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 3% year-over-year in May amid energy price shocks from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Governing Council held the deposit rate steady at 2% on April 30, but post-meeting statements from policymakers including Nagel, Kazimir, Schnabel, Cipollone, and Kocher signal a June hike as likely or inevitable to counter entrenched inflation risks above the 2% target. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys forecast two 25-basis-point increases starting next month, marking a hawkish pivot from earlier cut expectations, with the June monetary policy decision as the key upcoming catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$113,871Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, anchored by Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 3% year-over-year in May amid energy price shocks from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Governing Council held the deposit rate steady at 2% on April 30, but post-meeting statements from policymakers including Nagel, Kazimir, Schnabel, Cipollone, and Kocher signal a June hike as likely or inevitable to counter entrenched inflation risks above the 2% target. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys forecast two 25-basis-point increases starting next month, marking a hawkish pivot from earlier cut expectations, with the June monetary policy decision as the key upcoming catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$113,871Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, anchored by Eurozone HICP inflation surging to 3% year-over-year in May amid energy price shocks from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Governing Council held the deposit rate steady at 2% on April 30, but post-meeting statements from policymakers including Nagel, Kazimir, Schnabel, Cipollone, and Kocher signal a June hike as likely or inevitable to counter entrenched inflation risks above the 2% target. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys forecast two 25-basis-point increases starting next month, marking a hawkish pivot from earlier cut expectations, with the June monetary policy decision as the key upcoming catalyst.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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