Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 23–24°C because current ensemble forecasts for Mexico City point to typical mid-August conditions shaped by the city's 2,240-meter elevation and the ongoing rainy season. Afternoon convection and cloud cover from the North American monsoon often limit peak insolation, keeping daytime maxima near the 23–25°C climatological range while overnight lows hover near 13°C. Minor differences among leading outcomes hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any showers or brief clear spells that could allow an extra degree of warming. Updated short-range model runs and morning observations from official Mexican meteorological sources will likely refine these probabilities ahead of tomorrow's resolution.