Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms three magnitude 6.5+ events during the August 10–16 window, anchoring the 91.5% market-implied probability for exactly three. The primary driver is the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar at ~110 km depth, followed by the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14 and one additional qualifying shock consistent with observed clustering along subduction zones. These align with typical global rates of 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually and recent 2026 patterns showing no unusual surge. Trader consensus reflects the near-complete period and limited remaining time for new activity. An unexpected late M6.5+ event or aftershock sequence in the Pacific Ring of Fire before resolution could shift the total to four, though current observational data make this unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
3 90.1%
4 8.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
91%
4
8%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 90.1%
4 8.0%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$35,174 Vol.
$35,174 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
0
$11,993 Vol.
<1%
1
$6,814 Vol.
<1%
2
$6,885 Vol.
<1%
3
$4,627 Vol.
91%
4
$1,105 Vol.
8%
5
$1,025 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,726 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms three magnitude 6.5+ events during the August 10–16 window, anchoring the 91.5% market-implied probability for exactly three. The primary driver is the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar at ~110 km depth, followed by the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14 and one additional qualifying shock consistent with observed clustering along subduction zones. These align with typical global rates of 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually and recent 2026 patterns showing no unusual surge. Trader consensus reflects the near-complete period and limited remaining time for new activity. An unexpected late M6.5+ event or aftershock sequence in the Pacific Ring of Fire before resolution could shift the total to four, though current observational data make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Volume
$35,174Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms three magnitude 6.5+ events during the August 10–16 window, anchoring the 91.5% market-implied probability for exactly three. The primary driver is the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar at ~110 km depth, followed by the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14 and one additional qualifying shock consistent with observed clustering along subduction zones. These align with typical global rates of 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually and recent 2026 patterns showing no unusual surge. Trader consensus reflects the near-complete period and limited remaining time for new activity. An unexpected late M6.5+ event or aftershock sequence in the Pacific Ring of Fire before resolution could shift the total to four, though current observational data make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$35,174Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic monitoring from the USGS confirms three magnitude 6.5+ events during the August 10–16 window, anchoring the 91.5% market-implied probability for exactly three. The primary driver is the M7.4 Colombia quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar at ~110 km depth, followed by the M7.7 offshore Indonesia event on August 14 and one additional qualifying shock consistent with observed clustering along subduction zones. These align with typical global rates of 15–20 M6.5+ quakes annually and recent 2026 patterns showing no unusual surge. Trader consensus reflects the near-complete period and limited remaining time for new activity. An unexpected late M6.5+ event or aftershock sequence in the Pacific Ring of Fire before resolution could shift the total to four, though current observational data make this unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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