Record-high Democratic retirements have already been announced in the 2026 House cycle, with roughly two dozen incumbents opting out of reelection bids so far. Traders price the 32–35 outcome as most likely because additional announcements are expected before filing deadlines, driven by senior members citing tenure length, age, and the demanding nature of the upcoming midterm environment. Key differentiators among leading bins include the pace of further exits versus members choosing to run for Senate or governor seats, alongside any late shifts from redistricting pressures or party leadership transitions. Factors that could consolidate support around one range include the timing of remaining decisions from long-serving representatives and whether Democratic performance in special elections or polling trends accelerates or slows the retirement wave.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.3%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40+
17%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.3%
$31,654 Vol.
$31,654 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
3%
20–23
$5,250 Vol.
13%
24–27
$4,156 Vol.
19%
28–31
$1,174 Vol.
20%
32–35
$3,574 Vol.
32%
36–39
$508 Vol.
3%
40+
$0 Vol.
17%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Record-high Democratic retirements have already been announced in the 2026 House cycle, with roughly two dozen incumbents opting out of reelection bids so far. Traders price the 32–35 outcome as most likely because additional announcements are expected before filing deadlines, driven by senior members citing tenure length, age, and the demanding nature of the upcoming midterm environment. Key differentiators among leading bins include the pace of further exits versus members choosing to run for Senate or governor seats, alongside any late shifts from redistricting pressures or party leadership transitions. Factors that could consolidate support around one range include the timing of remaining decisions from long-serving representatives and whether Democratic performance in special elections or polling trends accelerates or slows the retirement wave.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Record-high Democratic retirements have already been announced in the 2026 House cycle, with roughly two dozen incumbents opting out of reelection bids so far. Traders price the 32–35 outcome as most likely because additional announcements are expected before filing deadlines, driven by senior members citing tenure length, age, and the demanding nature of the upcoming midterm environment. Key differentiators among leading bins include the pace of further exits versus members choosing to run for Senate or governor seats, alongside any late shifts from redistricting pressures or party leadership transitions. Factors that could consolidate support around one range include the timing of remaining decisions from long-serving representatives and whether Democratic performance in special elections or polling trends accelerates or slows the retirement wave.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,654Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-high Democratic retirements have already been announced in the 2026 House cycle, with roughly two dozen incumbents opting out of reelection bids so far. Traders price the 32–35 outcome as most likely because additional announcements are expected before filing deadlines, driven by senior members citing tenure length, age, and the demanding nature of the upcoming midterm environment. Key differentiators among leading bins include the pace of further exits versus members choosing to run for Senate or governor seats, alongside any late shifts from redistricting pressures or party leadership transitions. Factors that could consolidate support around one range include the timing of remaining decisions from long-serving representatives and whether Democratic performance in special elections or polling trends accelerates or slows the retirement wave.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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