The New Jersey Republican Senate primary, scheduled for June 2, centers on a contest between Alex Zdan and Richard Tabor that accounts for nearly all trader probability. Zdan holds a modest lead through name recognition built as a former political reporter and his prior 2024 Senate bid, bolstered by select county organizational support and America First messaging on issues such as border security. Tabor remains competitive on the strength of his background as a state trooper and Army veteran, along with recent wins in county conventions including Atlantic and Union that signal stronger local party infrastructure. The remaining candidates trail far behind with minimal visibility or endorsements. Primary timing leaves limited room for late shifts, though turnout among core Republican voters in the final weeks could still alter the outcome.