Israeli officials have described the September 30 Flydubai incident, in which a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the Dubai-Tel Aviv flight, as a possible jihadist terror attack, but have not linked it to Iran or its proxies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated it remains too early to determine any Iranian role, while initial Israeli assessments point to the Omani national acting alone. Ongoing investigations led by the UAE, with Saudi and possible Israeli participation, have yet to produce evidence supporting such accusations. This absence of confirmed connections or public attributions underpins the market's 85.5% probability on "No" through October 31, amid broader regional tensions but without new developments tying the event to Iranian direction.