The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell—centered on alleged false statements about $2.46 billion in Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and congressional testimony—remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges near 2% through year-end. A federal judge had already quashed subpoenas in March, citing essentially zero evidence of criminal conduct beyond policy disputes over interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general, who previously identified no fraud, and no new probes launched amid Powell’s completed term and Kevin Warsh’s succession, traders price in negligible odds of indictment. Absent fresh evidentiary developments or congressional action, resolution hinges on standard prosecutorial thresholds rather than political pressure.