Traders assign the highest implied probability to Khamenei accounts producing fewer than five posts during the August 25–September 1 window, reflecting expectations of subdued activity once the 40th-day commemorations for the late Supreme Leader conclude. Recent verified output from affiliated English and Persian accounts shows multiple daily updates tied to shrine ceremonies and memorial events in mid-to-late August, but volume typically declines outside such periods. The new leader’s official channel has maintained a measured cadence focused on official statements rather than frequent commentary, consistent with institutional norms for Iranian leadership accounts. No major scheduled announcements, diplomatic summits, or religious observances fall inside the resolution period that would likely trigger elevated posting. Market pricing therefore embeds the historical pattern of lower output in the absence of acute external triggers or ongoing mourning cycles.