Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
18°C 39%
12°C 39%
15°C 37%
11°C or below 37%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
37%
12°C
39%
13°C
17%
14°C
20%
15°C
37%
16°C
36%
17°C
36%
18°C
39%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
18°C 39%
12°C 39%
15°C 37%
11°C or below 37%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
37%
12°C
$10 Vol.
39%
13°C
$87 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$6 Vol.
36%
17°C
$14 Vol.
36%
18°C
$5 Vol.
39%
19°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$826Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$826Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 15, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty dominates trader positioning for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on September 15, with leading outcomes clustered between 15–17°C reflecting divergent model guidance. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System runs show subtle differences in overnight cloud cover and boundary-layer wind speeds, which control radiative cooling rates under a weak high-pressure ridge. Clearer skies and lighter winds favor lower readings near 14–15°C, while increased moisture and modest southerly flow support 16–17°C. Historical September minima average around 11–13°C, but current ensemble spreads remain wide due to the short lead time and typical autumn variability in the North Atlantic. Updated model cycles and local observations from KNMI stations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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