**Forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum in Warsaw on August 24 drives the near-even split between the leading outcomes (7°C or below at 46.0% and 17°C or higher at 45.5%).** Multiple numerical weather prediction models show notable spread in expected low temperatures, reflecting sensitivity to small differences in cloud cover, wind, and air-mass characteristics two days out. Recent conditions feature a mix of showers and variable cloudiness, with daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C and overnight lows typically 12–16°C. Clearer skies overnight would promote stronger radiative cooling under light winds, potentially allowing temperatures to drop well below seasonal norms toward or below 7°C. In contrast, increased cloud cover or a warmer southwesterly flow would limit cooling and support minima above 17°C. Key differentiating factors include the strength of any approaching high-pressure ridge, boundary-layer moisture, and low-level wind speeds, all of which can shift the minimum by several degrees. Official guidance from European models and ensembles currently brackets the most likely range near 11–15°C, but the wide probability distribution in the market underscores genuine forecast divergence at this lead time. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.