**Short-term numerical weather prediction models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to broken cloud conditions could drive Munich's minimum temperature on August 24 into the single digits Celsius, while any increase in cloud cover, humidity, or light advection of milder air would keep readings closer to the seasonal 12–14 °C average.** With the market split nearly evenly between sub-6 °C and 16 °C-plus outcomes, traders are weighting the latest ensemble runs from European and global centers, which diverge on the strength of the nocturnal inversion and surface wind speeds. Clear skies promote strong long-wave radiation loss from the ground, allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below the afternoon dew point, whereas even thin high clouds or a gentle breeze can limit that drop by several degrees. Historical August minima rarely reach single digits, so the elevated probability on colder bins reflects current model consensus on dry, calm nights rather than any long-term climate signal. Updated model cycles and satellite observations of incoming moisture over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts likely to shift these tightly matched implied probabilities.