**McConnell has not cast a Senate vote since June 11, 2026, following hospitalization on June 14 after a fall that left him unconscious.** He spent nearly eight weeks in medical facilities before discharge from rehabilitation on August 6, with his office stating he is now recovering at home while continuing intensive physical therapy and Senate-related work during the August recess. At age 84 and with a prior pattern of health episodes, these extended absences have produced zero recorded votes through mid-August. The Senate returns in September with a limited session window before September 30, yet no statements indicate an imminent return to the chamber or resumption of in-person or proxy voting. Traders therefore assign an 82% probability to “No,” reflecting the timeline of his recovery and lack of confirmation that he will participate in floor votes before the cutoff.