Robust consensus forecasts from the FOMC, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0–2.5% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, consistent with recent quarterly prints of +2.1% in Q1 and +1.5% in Q2. This outlook reflects resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditure, and a labor market holding near 4.3% unemployment, even amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects that have prompted the Fed to signal additional rate hikes. Prediction-market traders price in these fundamentals with near-certainty, viewing full-year contraction as a low-probability outcome given the economy’s distance from recession thresholds. Tail risks include sharper monetary tightening if inflation persists above target, prolonged energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal shifts that could tip quarterly growth negative and compound into an annual decline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2% tsansa
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% tsansa
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the FOMC, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0–2.5% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, consistent with recent quarterly prints of +2.1% in Q1 and +1.5% in Q2. This outlook reflects resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditure, and a labor market holding near 4.3% unemployment, even amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects that have prompted the Fed to signal additional rate hikes. Prediction-market traders price in these fundamentals with near-certainty, viewing full-year contraction as a low-probability outcome given the economy’s distance from recession thresholds. Tail risks include sharper monetary tightening if inflation persists above target, prolonged energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal shifts that could tip quarterly growth negative and compound into an annual decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the FOMC, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0–2.5% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, consistent with recent quarterly prints of +2.1% in Q1 and +1.5% in Q2. This outlook reflects resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditure, and a labor market holding near 4.3% unemployment, even amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects that have prompted the Fed to signal additional rate hikes. Prediction-market traders price in these fundamentals with near-certainty, viewing full-year contraction as a low-probability outcome given the economy’s distance from recession thresholds. Tail risks include sharper monetary tightening if inflation persists above target, prolonged energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal shifts that could tip quarterly growth negative and compound into an annual decline.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,280Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the FOMC, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP expanding around 2.0–2.5% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 or annual-average basis, consistent with recent quarterly prints of +2.1% in Q1 and +1.5% in Q2. This outlook reflects resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditure, and a labor market holding near 4.3% unemployment, even amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects that have prompted the Fed to signal additional rate hikes. Prediction-market traders price in these fundamentals with near-certainty, viewing full-year contraction as a low-probability outcome given the economy’s distance from recession thresholds. Tail risks include sharper monetary tightening if inflation persists above target, prolonged energy shocks, or abrupt fiscal shifts that could tip quarterly growth negative and compound into an annual decline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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