Robust economic momentum and broad-based consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections show a median 2.3% real GDP increase for the year, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and no participants anticipating contraction, while private forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.8% annual growth driven by AI-related capital spending, resilient consumer outlays, and a balanced labor market at 4.1% unemployment. Recent data reinforce this view, with Q3 tracking near 2.8% annualized amid stable job gains. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply raise energy prices, an abrupt slowdown in AI investment, or policy missteps that tighten financial conditions beyond current expectations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2% tsansa
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% tsansa
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust economic momentum and broad-based consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections show a median 2.3% real GDP increase for the year, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and no participants anticipating contraction, while private forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.8% annual growth driven by AI-related capital spending, resilient consumer outlays, and a balanced labor market at 4.1% unemployment. Recent data reinforce this view, with Q3 tracking near 2.8% annualized amid stable job gains. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply raise energy prices, an abrupt slowdown in AI investment, or policy missteps that tighten financial conditions beyond current expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,419Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust economic momentum and broad-based consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections show a median 2.3% real GDP increase for the year, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and no participants anticipating contraction, while private forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.8% annual growth driven by AI-related capital spending, resilient consumer outlays, and a balanced labor market at 4.1% unemployment. Recent data reinforce this view, with Q3 tracking near 2.8% annualized amid stable job gains. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply raise energy prices, an abrupt slowdown in AI investment, or policy missteps that tighten financial conditions beyond current expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,419Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 29, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust economic momentum and broad-based consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. GDP growth for 2026. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 projections show a median 2.3% real GDP increase for the year, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4% and no participants anticipating contraction, while private forecasters cluster around 2.0–2.8% annual growth driven by AI-related capital spending, resilient consumer outlays, and a balanced labor market at 4.1% unemployment. Recent data reinforce this view, with Q3 tracking near 2.8% annualized amid stable job gains. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply raise energy prices, an abrupt slowdown in AI investment, or policy missteps that tighten financial conditions beyond current expectations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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