**Recent polling and seat projections show the CAQ positioned for a competitive but diminished result in the October 5 election, with the 25–35 seat range carrying the highest implied probability among traders.** The party enters the campaign under new Premier Christine Fréchette after eight years in power and François Legault’s earlier resignation. Voter fatigue has eroded its base, yet a late-August Synopsis poll captured a sharp seven-point rebound to 27 percent support, statistically tying the Parti Québécois at 28 percent. Gains concentrated among francophones, women, and voters over 55, coinciding with the U.S. trade tensions that elevated concerns over economic stability. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently project the CAQ near 28 seats on average (wide bands of roughly 9–48), while the PQ leads projected seat totals but holds only modest odds of a majority. Tight multi-party races across many ridings, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ emerging regional strength, create substantial variance in final seat outcomes. The ongoing campaign period and any further polling shifts remain the primary variables that could expand or contract the CAQ’s seat range before election night.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 11%
10-14 9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 5, 2026
<5
2%
5-9
6%
10-14
9%
15-19
7%
20-24
11%
25-29
21%
30+
47%
30+ 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 11%
10-14 9%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$511 Vol.
2%
5-9
$917 Vol.
6%
10-14
$2,618 Vol.
9%
15-19
$1,068 Vol.
7%
20-24
$638 Vol.
11%
25-29
$1,042 Vol.
21%
30+
$1,573 Vol.
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections show the CAQ positioned for a competitive but diminished result in the October 5 election, with the 25–35 seat range carrying the highest implied probability among traders.**
The party enters the campaign under new Premier Christine Fréchette after eight years in power and François Legault’s earlier resignation. Voter fatigue has eroded its base, yet a late-August Synopsis poll captured a sharp seven-point rebound to 27 percent support, statistically tying the Parti Québécois at 28 percent. Gains concentrated among francophones, women, and voters over 55, coinciding with the U.S. trade tensions that elevated concerns over economic stability. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently project the CAQ near 28 seats on average (wide bands of roughly 9–48), while the PQ leads projected seat totals but holds only modest odds of a majority.
Tight multi-party races across many ridings, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ emerging regional strength, create substantial variance in final seat outcomes. The ongoing campaign period and any further polling shifts remain the primary variables that could expand or contract the CAQ’s seat range before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,367Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections show the CAQ positioned for a competitive but diminished result in the October 5 election, with the 25–35 seat range carrying the highest implied probability among traders.**
The party enters the campaign under new Premier Christine Fréchette after eight years in power and François Legault’s earlier resignation. Voter fatigue has eroded its base, yet a late-August Synopsis poll captured a sharp seven-point rebound to 27 percent support, statistically tying the Parti Québécois at 28 percent. Gains concentrated among francophones, women, and voters over 55, coinciding with the U.S. trade tensions that elevated concerns over economic stability. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently project the CAQ near 28 seats on average (wide bands of roughly 9–48), while the PQ leads projected seat totals but holds only modest odds of a majority.
Tight multi-party races across many ridings, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ emerging regional strength, create substantial variance in final seat outcomes. The ongoing campaign period and any further polling shifts remain the primary variables that could expand or contract the CAQ’s seat range before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,367Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and seat projections show the CAQ positioned for a competitive but diminished result in the October 5 election, with the 25–35 seat range carrying the highest implied probability among traders.** The party enters the campaign under new Premier Christine Fréchette after eight years in power and François Legault’s earlier resignation. Voter fatigue has eroded its base, yet a late-August Synopsis poll captured a sharp seven-point rebound to 27 percent support, statistically tying the Parti Québécois at 28 percent. Gains concentrated among francophones, women, and voters over 55, coinciding with the U.S. trade tensions that elevated concerns over economic stability. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 currently project the CAQ near 28 seats on average (wide bands of roughly 9–48), while the PQ leads projected seat totals but holds only modest odds of a majority. Tight multi-party races across many ridings, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ emerging regional strength, create substantial variance in final seat outcomes. The ongoing campaign period and any further polling shifts remain the primary variables that could expand or contract the CAQ’s seat range before election night.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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