The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updatePrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
31%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
12%
500-550mm
9%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 31%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 12%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$805 Vol.
31%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
12%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
8%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
7%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
7%
450-500mm
$125 Vol.
12%
500-550mm
$128 Vol.
9%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,990Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,990Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory's August 31 forecast for normal to below-normal September rainfall, driven by a developing very strong El Niño and strengthening high-pressure anticyclone over southern China in the month's second half, underpins trader emphasis on the sub-300 mm range. Early-month low-pressure troughs and multiple tropical systems in the South China Sea introduce upside risk for heavier totals via organized convection, yet climatological norms near 277 mm and model consensus favor drier steering patterns overall. Key variables include tropical cyclone frequency and tracks, anticyclone intensity, and any rapid ENSO strengthening, with daily HKO updates and NHC monitoring likely to shift odds as the month begins.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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