The 119th Congress has seen H.R. 22 and its rebranded SAVE America Act successor clear the House multiple times on near party-line votes, yet Senate consideration has produced consistent shortfalls, including a June 2026 amendment defeat by 48-50 and stalled efforts to attach the measure to must-pass vehicles such as the NDAA or appropriations bills. Senate rules requiring 60 votes for cloture, combined with opposition from enough Republicans to block advancement, have prevented floor passage through September 2026. Traders assign the 96.4 percent “No” probability because these structural and vote-count barriers have held despite repeated House maneuvers and administration pressure. A late-session breakthrough via reconciliation, filibuster carve-out, or last-minute must-pass attachment before year-end remains the primary path that could still shift the outcome.