**Trader consensus on the Girona winner reflects a fragmented contest among Catalan parties ahead of the November 29 general election, with PSOE holding the highest implied probability at 37.5%, followed by Junts at 28.5% and ERC at 21.5%.** Recent CEO polling in Catalonia shows the PSC (PSOE affiliate) leading direct voting intention in Girona at 18.29%, ahead of ERC at 14.29% and Junts at 10.86%, consistent with its 2023 plurality in the province. National polling averages favor PP and Vox overall, yet these parties register lower support locally, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among Catalan nationalist and left-leaning voters. The six-seat constituency and d’Hondt allocation amplify small shifts in vote share, sustaining tight probabilities until final campaign momentum and turnout patterns clarify the leader.