Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateThird-best AI Agent Lab end of August?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of August?
Moonshot 49%
MiniMax 25%
Alibaba 23%
Mistral 22%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
58%
MiniMax
25%
Alibaba
23%
Mistral
22%
Baidu
19%
ByteDance
18%
Xiaomi
18%
16%
Anthropic
12%
Z.ai
8%
SpaceXAI
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Meta
3%
OpenAI
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 49%
MiniMax 25%
Alibaba 23%
Mistral 22%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$279 Vol.
58%
MiniMax
$170 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$122 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$133 Vol.
22%
Baidu
$181 Vol.
19%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
18%
Xiaomi
$166 Vol.
18%
$60 Vol.
16%
Anthropic
$211 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$324 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$118 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$20 Vol.
5%
Meta
$117 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$140 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$175 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$155 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$152 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$2,729Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,729Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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