Moonshot’s strong positioning at 85.9% implied probability stems primarily from the July 2026 release of its Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts system with 1M-token context and advanced Agent Swarm capabilities that delivered top-tier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning, tool use, and multi-step workflows. Traders appear to view this as sufficient momentum to secure third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard by September 30, outpacing lower-priced Chinese rivals like Z.ai and DeepSeek while remaining competitive with U.S. frontier labs. Recent September updates, including direct finance-data integrations and continued revenue growth, reinforce the lab’s trajectory, though the tight 10-day window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or competitor releases to alter outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 85.9%
Z.ai 5.3%
DeepSeek 4.3%
Mistral 4.1%
$54,089 Vol.
$54,089 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
86%
Z.ai
5%
DeepSeek
4%
Mistral
4%
Meta
3%
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Alibaba
2%
Anthropic
2%
OpenAI
2%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 85.9%
Z.ai 5.3%
DeepSeek 4.3%
Mistral 4.1%
$54,089 Vol.
$54,089 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$34,484 Vol.
86%
Z.ai
$2,812 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$471 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$610 Vol.
4%
Meta
$409 Vol.
3%
$482 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$584 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,087 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$2,459 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$7,320 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$470 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$414 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$388 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$609 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$373 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$393 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$408 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s strong positioning at 85.9% implied probability stems primarily from the July 2026 release of its Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts system with 1M-token context and advanced Agent Swarm capabilities that delivered top-tier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning, tool use, and multi-step workflows. Traders appear to view this as sufficient momentum to secure third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard by September 30, outpacing lower-priced Chinese rivals like Z.ai and DeepSeek while remaining competitive with U.S. frontier labs. Recent September updates, including direct finance-data integrations and continued revenue growth, reinforce the lab’s trajectory, though the tight 10-day window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or competitor releases to alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$54,089Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s strong positioning at 85.9% implied probability stems primarily from the July 2026 release of its Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts system with 1M-token context and advanced Agent Swarm capabilities that delivered top-tier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning, tool use, and multi-step workflows. Traders appear to view this as sufficient momentum to secure third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard by September 30, outpacing lower-priced Chinese rivals like Z.ai and DeepSeek while remaining competitive with U.S. frontier labs. Recent September updates, including direct finance-data integrations and continued revenue growth, reinforce the lab’s trajectory, though the tight 10-day window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or competitor releases to alter outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$54,089Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot’s strong positioning at 85.9% implied probability stems primarily from the July 2026 release of its Kimi K3 model, a 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts system with 1M-token context and advanced Agent Swarm capabilities that delivered top-tier results on agentic benchmarks for long-horizon reasoning, tool use, and multi-step workflows. Traders appear to view this as sufficient momentum to secure third place on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard by September 30, outpacing lower-priced Chinese rivals like Z.ai and DeepSeek while remaining competitive with U.S. frontier labs. Recent September updates, including direct finance-data integrations and continued revenue growth, reinforce the lab’s trajectory, though the tight 10-day window to resolution leaves room for last-minute benchmark shifts or competitor releases to alter outcomes.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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