Traders assign near-certain odds that President Trump will remain in office through May 31, driven by the absence of active impeachment resolutions, Senate proceedings, or public signals of resignation or incapacity in recent weeks. With Congress focused on appropriations bills and routine legislative business rather than executive accountability measures, no constitutional or political mechanisms have advanced to alter leadership before the deadline. Historical precedents indicate successful early-term removals require extraordinary bipartisan consensus or acute crises, conditions not present in current House or Senate dynamics. Late-breaking developments such as health-related announcements, major court rulings on eligibility, or unforeseen scandals could still introduce volatility, though these remain remote within the brief remaining window.