**Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to “No” for Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027, reflecting the absence of any trilateral meeting despite repeated diplomatic efforts since mid-2025.** Trump met Putin bilaterally in Alaska in August 2025 without a deal or Ukrainian participation, then hosted Zelensky and European leaders at the White House days later to discuss security guarantees and potential follow-on talks. Trump publicly floated sequencing a Putin-Zelensky bilateral ahead of a trilateral session he would join, and made follow-up calls to advance it. However, Russia responded by appointing senior negotiators rather than committing Putin directly, citing longstanding objections to Zelensky’s legitimacy and demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions (particularly full control of Donbas) that remain unresolved. By mid-2026, negotiations had stalled further. US officials rejected Russian claims of binding “Anchorage understandings,” while battlefield dynamics, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and disputes over security arrangements continued without producing a three-way encounter. Putin has shown consistent reluctance to sit with Zelensky as equals, and no scheduled trilateral or equivalent public sighting has materialized in the roughly 12 months since the initial summits. Ongoing war conditions, incompatible red lines on territory and guarantees, and the slow pace of US-mediated talks sustain the strong market expectation that the three leaders will not appear together before the end of 2026.